Archive for the ‘Polling Data’ Category

Rudy Giuliani Sinking in Florida Swamps

January 11, 2008

Rudy Giuliani Stress TestRudy Giuliani has abandoned state after state when he has seen his poll numbers fall. He has drawn a line in the sand in Florida, where he is spending his remaining campaign funds. Money is so tight that his campaign staff isn’t even being paid anymore. Now it appears that that line may have been drawn in quicksand. John McCain has overtaken Giuliani in Florida!

  • John McCain 27% (10%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 19% (29%)
  • Mitt Romney 17% (20%)
  • Mike Huckabee 17% (24%)
  • Fred Thompson 8% (8%)
  • Ron Paul 5% (-)

SurveyUSA summarizes the poll this way:

Suddenly, NH Win Slingshots McCain Past Giuliani in Florida Republican Primary: Rudolph Giuliani, who had led in a Florida Republican Primary by as many as 14 points in previous SurveyUSA tracking polls, today trails John McCain by 8 points, fighting with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney to hold onto 2nd place, 3 days after McCain won the New Hampshire Primary.

What an incredible reversal of fortune! A McCain surge in Florida. This will be a race to remember.

Hat Tip: Race 4 2008.

Update: Giuliani’s national finance chair, Roy Bailey, co-founding partner of Giuliani’s consulting firm is no longer being paid either.  Why?  He bailed.  He’s no longer working for Rudy, the sinking ship.
— Psycheout

Mittens Going Down in Flames?

January 5, 2008

New Hampshire primaryThe latest polling from New Hampshire shows Romney dropping behind McCain. Can Mitt Romney survive a one-two punch when he was literally banking on winning both Iowa and New Hampshire?

The most startling poll comes from ARG:

John McCain 35% (30%)
Mitt Romney 25% (30%)
Mike Huckabee 12% (11%)
Ron Paul 9% (7%)
Rudy Giuliani 8% (9%)
Fred Thompson 1% (3%)
Duncan Hunter 1% (1%)
Alan Keyes 1% (1%)

    If that’s accurate, Mitt dropped 5 points while McCain gained the same making a 10 point spread between the two candidates.

    The next poll, from Rasmussen shows a similar trend:

    John McCain 31% (27%)
    Mitt Romney 26% (31%)
    Ron Paul 14% (7%)
    Mike Huckabee 11% (11%)
    Rudy Giuliani 8% (13%)
    Fred Thompson 5% (3%)

      Again, Mitt dropped and McCain gained. And look at little upstart Ron Paul go! Although this might be an outlier that overestimates Paul’s chances.

      The main thing to notice here is that Mitt Romney and the millions he spent to con the voters and buy his way into the nomination may soon be a memory, even if he manages to win the virtually empty state of Wyoming today. The victory, like the state itself, would be an empty one — a souvenir, or consolation prize, for Team Mittens on its way out the door.

      — Psycheout

      Everyone Hates Mitt and HillDog

      December 22, 2007

      I Hate YouWell not everyone, but these two horrid candidates, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton, have the highest negatives, in terms of voter resistance, of the entire field.  And that includes kooks like Ron Paul and Dennis Kookspinach.  Now, that’s really saying something!

      Among the leading Presidential candidates, New York Senator Hillary Clinton and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney have the highest level of core opposition among voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they will vote against each of these candidates no matter who else is on the ballot.

      Oops, maybe I spoken too soon.  Denny and Ronnie are hardly “leading” candidates.  So never mind about that.  But what’s also interesting is who’s on the other extreme, as far as the fickle public is concerned.  Who do voters hate the least?  The answer may surprise you.

      At the opposite end of the spectrum is Arizona Senator John McCain. For the second straight month, McCain finds himself with the smallest level of core opposition–just 33% say they will definitely vote against him.

      Polling DataAs for the rest of the field…

      42% will definitely vote against Giuliani, 38% against Edwards, 36% against Obama, 34% against Huckabee, 34% against Thompson.

      So McCain barely edges out Fred! and Huck in terms of not being hated.  What’s also odd, however is this revelation:

      As for core support, Clinton is also on top. Thirty percent (30%) will definitely vote for her and 29% will definitely vote for Obama. Edwards and Giuliani have core support from 23%, McCain from 22%, Thompson and Huckabee from 21%, and Romney from 19%.

      So let’s see, Hillary and Mitt are the most hated, while HillDog has the most core support while Mitt has the least.  Romney’s dead last.  But the Rombots in that 19% pool really swoon for the plastic phoney.  It’s actually rather incredible to read comments on blogs written by these folks.  They would literally die for Mittens.

      Summary: Mitt is a double negative, Hillary is a zero.

      Confused?  Me too!  This is one strange primary season!

      Maybe eyeon08 or Ed Morrissey can help untangle this mess and explain it for us.  I hope so.  Because, frankly, I’m lost.

      — Psycheout